While California remains one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world, known as the “salad bowl” of the U.S., the amount of land actively used for agriculture has been decreasing since the 1980s. Without taking new conservation measures, California is projected to continue losing farmland at a rate of roughly 50,000 acres per year - equivalent to more than one and a half times the area of San Francisco annually - according to the California Climate and Agriculture Network.


Understanding the pressures shaping today’s land-use decisions is essential for evaluating how new land uses can play a role in maintaining California’s position as the leading agricultural producer in the nation.


Pressures shaping today’s land-use decisions


While urban development remains a primary driver of land conversion, other pressures – including decreases in groundwater, increased climate variability, and economic uncertainties – further drive loss of California’s working lands.


Water availability has become a central constraint on agricultural land use in California. Decades of drought and heavy reliance on groundwater have made reliable irrigation more uncertain, particularly in the Central Valley. Implementation of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) is reshaping how groundwater can be used by requiring overdrafted basins to reduce pumping. In regions where agriculture relies heavily on groundwater, these limits can reduce available irrigation supplies, leading some land to be fallowed, shifted to lower-water-use crops, or removed from production altogether. Studies indicate that between 500,000 and 900,000 acres of agricultural land in the San Joaquin Valley may be taken out of production due to water scarcity in the coming years, as reported by American Farmland Trust.


Climate variability and rising temperatures compound existing water challenges. Heat waves and longer dry periods are becoming more frequent, increasing irrigation demand and stress on crops. Some climate projections indicate considerable impacts on major California crops. For example, as reported by National Public Radio, yields for several fruit and nut crops such as grapes and almonds could decrease by 20-40% by 2050 due to increased daytime temperatures and reduced overnight chill hours. These shifts add uncertainty to production decisions and long-term planning, especially for these types of specialty crops that dominate much of California’s agricultural economy.


Economic conditions also play a significant role in shaping agricultural land use. In California, average farm real estate values are among the highest in the nation, with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reporting cropland values above $17,000 per acre in major agricultural regions. High land costs increase financial pressure on farmers and can make it difficult for smaller operations to remain viable. Additionally, expenses such as labor and agricultural inputs have sometimes grown faster than revenues, squeezing profit margins for many producers. These pressures are reflected in industry trends: between 2017 and 2022, the number of farms in California declined by more than 10%, with the greatest losses among smaller operations farming less than 180 acres2.


These pressures have increased interest in land-use approaches that seek to maintain agricultural activity while integrating additional activities that conserve water resources, mitigate climate change impacts, and diversify revenue streams.


The agrivoltaics opportunity


Within this context, agrivoltaics has emerged as an approach that integrates agricultural activity with solar energy production by maintaining productive farmland below and between solar panels. This dual-use strategy provides myriad benefits, including land-use efficiency, which we’ll explore in future posts. 


As interest grows in agrivoltaics as an important contributor to land and natural resource conservation efforts in California, we at HARVEST California are committed to helping stakeholders across the state understand and evaluate the opportunity to pair crops and solar. To stay up-to-date on the rapid evolution of agrivoltaics in California, subscribe to our monthly newsletter. 



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